Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 1 Rankings
1.
T.J. Hockenson
MIN (vs . TB)
After a midseason trade took him from Detroit to Minnesota, Hockenson averaged 8.6 targets, 6.0 catches and 51.9 receiving yards in 10 games with the Vikings. Is Hockenson still the No. 2 target in the Vikings' passing game behind Justin Jefferson, or will Jordan Addison usurp that role and diminish Hock's fantasy value? The guess here is that Hock remains one of the more valuable tight ends in fantasy but sees a noteworthy reduction in targets. Start him this week against a Buccaneers defense that allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends last year.
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2.
Darren Waller
NYG (vs . DAL)
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3.
Dallas Goedert
PHI (at NE)
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4.
George Kittle
SF (at PIT)
A groin injury has left Kittle's status in question for week 1, so you'll have to monitor his status throughout the week. Kittle has some huge games, so it would be hard to leave him on your bench if he's active. But Kittle's target counts can oscillate wildly, and the injury raises the risk of a dud game if he's able to suit up. Should Kittle miss this game, no San Francisco TE would be worth your consideration.
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5.
Kyle Pitts
ATL (vs . CAR)
After a disappointing, injury-marred 2022 campaign, will Pitts live up to his vast fantasy potential in 2023? Two seasons ago, Pitts became the first rookie tight end to record a 1,000-yard season since Mike Ditka did it 60 years earlier. Pitts had only 28-356-2 in 10 games last year before a torn MCL ended his season. While he was healthy, he was plagued by an extraordinarily high percentage of uncatchable throws from Marcus Mariota. Pitts is a midrange TE1 with the potential to ascend to the top of the position. Don't leave him out of your lineup.
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6.
Tyler Higbee
LAR (at SEA)
Higbee could stumble into a ton of production in Week 1. The Rams tight end finished 7th in route participation (71%) through 17 weeks last season, posting a 21% target share (4th) and 24% target rate per route run (3rd) among TEs with 80 targets. He finished 9th in PPR points per game (9.04). Higbee could easily emerge as the No. 2 target on the offense, and he could easily see his target share skyrocket should Kupp miss any time with his hamstring injury. Start him as back-end fantasy TE1. Seattle has ranked inside the bottom-five in points allowed to tight ends over the last two seasons.
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7.
Evan Engram
JAC (at IND)
After establishing new career highs in catches (73) and receiving yards (766) last season, Engram was franchise-tagged by the Jaguars, but the team then worked out a three-year deal with the six-year veteran, who just turned 29. Engram showed how good he can be last year, but it might be hard for him to replicate his 2023 numbers now that the Jaguars have added WR Calvin Ridley, a potential target hog. Engram should be regarded as a lower-end TE1.
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8.
David Njoku
CLE (vs . CIN)
Njoku had 58-628-4 receiving last year in only 14 games, and this weekend he'll face a Bengals defense that lost both of its starting safeties from last year, Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell. Njoku profiles as a midrange to low-end tight end for Week 1 and probably belongs in your lineup.
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9.
Pat Freiermuth
PIT (vs . SF)
After catching 60 passes for 497 yards as a rookie, Freiermuth had 63 receptions for 732 yards last year. His average depth of target went from 5.3 yards in 2021 to 8.3 yards in 2022, and his yards per target jumped from 6.3 to 7.5. Although the trends are positive, Freiermuth is no better than a low-end TE this week vs. a 49ers defense that gave up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends last season.
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10.
Juwan Johnson
NO (vs . TEN)
On one hand, Johnson gets a great matchup against a Titans defense that was bashed by TEs last season to the tune of 98 catches, 1,130 yards and 6 touchdowns. Only four teams allowed more fantasy points to tight ends in 2022 than the Titans did. On the other hand, Johnson's fantasy value has been more about touchdowns than catch volume, and it's unlikely that Johnson will ramp up the volume with Saints WR Michael Thomas healthy. Consider Johnson a midrange TE2 this week.
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11.
Chigoziem Okonkwo
TEN (at NO)
The Saints were stingy to opposing TEs last year, allowing a league-low 58 catches and 509 receiving yards to the position. Okonkwo is an intriguing young player, but leave him on ice this week in a tough matchup.
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12.
Gerald Everett
CHI (vs . GB)
Everett has been my favorite sleeper tight end to select this season, and I feel great about thrusting him into my starting lineup with offensive fireworks likely on deck versus the Miami Dolphins. He should occupy the Dalton Schultz role in Kellen Moore's offense, which should lead to plenty of routes/snaps for Everett to create fantasy production. Denver's defense under Fangio was extremely stingy in the red zone - first in red-zone scoring defense from 2020-2021 - so it might be more of a floor performance than a ceiling game if Everett can't find the end zone. Luckily for him, the Dolphins were horrible versus tight ends in 2022 (3rd-most points allowed) and there has not been a dramatic personnel change along the safety or linebacker positions that would suggest they will start to completely nullify tight end production in 2023. David Long is much more of a run defending linebacker as is DeShon Elliott at the safety position. Everett posted a 5-28-0 stat line on 8 targets in his lone matchup versus the Dolphins in Week 14 of the 2022 season.
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13.
Sam LaPorta
DET (at KC)
Sammy Ballgame could have people deleting their "rookie tight ends never produce" tweets immediately in Week 1. Ballgame was a beast in college, ranking seventh in yards per route run and sixth in receiving grade in his final collegiate season. He lined up in the slot or out wide on 50.6% of his snaps, which makes him a perfect fit for T.J. Hockenson's old role. Last year with the Lions, Hockenson spent 54.5% of his snaps in the slot or as a perimeter wide receiver. Ballgame is a monster after the catch, ranking third in YAC and second in missed tackles forced last year among tight ends. Ballgame should have a field day against a defense with the 13th-highest missed tackles allowed rate last year while also giving up the tenth-highest yards per reception and MOST fantasy points in the NFL to slot tight ends. LaPorta is a TE2 that could post strong TE1 numbers in Week 1.
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14.
Dalton Schultz
HOU (at BAL)
Schultz is the quintessential definition of a floor play at tight end. He will likely see plenty of volume running the majority of routes among Houston's tight ends. But the fact that he was constantly subbed out in red zone packages during the preseason, shy me away from his upside, especially with almost zero YAC to work with. To add more concerns, the Ravens' strengths are at linebacker and safety between Kyle Hamilton, Marcus Williams, Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith. Considering those will be Schultz's matchups in most coverage looks, I don't LOVE his chances of having a super productive game. Low-end fantasy TE1 option for Week 1.
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15.
Cole Kmet
CHI (vs . GB)
Kmet should see a favorable route-running role in the Bears' offense, but the additional bodies at tight end such as Robert Tonyan and WRs added to the offense create doubt on how effective he will be on a weekly basis. Despite posting the league's highest route participation (84 percent) last season, he posted a horrible 16 percent target rate - identical to Foster Moreau. He also caught five red-zone touchdowns, despite just nine red-zone targets - a mark that ranked outside the top-15 at the position. All in all, Kmet finished as a top-12 tight end in just 25 percent of his games played (22nd). Kmet is going to remain a TD-or-bust tight end unless we see him really separate from the other pass-catchers in Chicago's offense. Given he has surpassed 50 receiving yards once versus the Packers in his last four games with zero TDs, I am not optimistic this is a spot to start him.
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16.
Isaiah Likely
BAL (vs . HOU)
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17.
Dalton Kincaid
BUF (at NYJ)
A first-round pick out of Utah, Kincaid is a talented pass catcher who could cause matchup nightmares for opposing defenses. There have been 25 tight ends drafted in the first round since 2000. Only four of them finished in TE1 range in fantasy scoring as rookies - Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, Jeremy Shockey and Heath Miller. Kincaid could be the rare first-round TE who makes a fantasy splash in Year 1, but I wouldn;t be eager to use him in Week 1, especially not against a tough Jets defense.
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18.
Greg Dulcich
DEN (vs . LV)
The time is now to fade Greg Dulcich. The new coaching staff has no allegiance to him as the TE1 on the roster. During the team's first preseason game, Dulcich only ran a route on 50% of Russell Wilson's dropbacks. He was also out-snapped 10 vs 15 and out-targeted (0 vs. 3) by Adam Trautman (who was brought over from New Orleans). There are MUCH better tight ends to play in Week 1 with full-time roles. Stay away from Dulcich until he shows a usable role in Denver's offense.
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19.
Jake Ferguson
DAL (at NYG)
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20.
Taysom Hill
NO (vs . TEN)
Is Hill TE-eligible in your league? He might not be now that the NFL lists him as a quarterback rather than as a tight end. Regardless, Hill is a boom-or-bust fantasy option who finished TE9 in PPR fantasy scoring last season. There might not be as many boom games now that the Saints have stabilized the QB position with Derek Carr, who's likely to come off the field less often for Hill's wildcat gadgetry than Anday Dalton did last year. Fade Hill in Week 1.
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21.
Luke Musgrave
GB (at CHI)
Packers TE Luke Musgrave is the clear-cut TE1 in Green Bay with an elite role. He ran a route on 100% of Jordan Love dropbacks in Week 2 of the preseason, indicating his status as a full-time player. Running enough routes is critical in finding breakout TEs, and Musgrave's role and impressive college production profile suggest he is on the cusp of immediate impact. Stash him if he's on waivers and start him if you need a Week 1 flier. He's also the perfect punt tight end on DraftKings, egregiously priced at $2,900. Better yet, no Watson should create more opportunities for Musgrave to produce.
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22.
Hayden Hurst
LAC (vs . MIA)
Hurst has noted that tight ends are often a quarterback's best friend, and he has volunteered to get chummy with rookie QB Bryce Young. Hurst faces a Falcons defense that gave up the third-most fantasy points to tight ends last year, so this is a good spot for the veteran tight end. He won't get a lot of love from fantasy managers, but Hurst is a viable option this week and an interesting contrarian choice in DFS tourneys.
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23.
Hunter Henry
NE (vs . PHI)
If there's any non-Stevenson Patriots player, I'd feel okay about starting in Week 1, it would be Hunter Henry. He is the clear TE1 for the Patriots with Mike Gesicki missing time due to a shoulder injury. Henry is by far Jones' preferred red-zone target, and one receiving TD is enough to vault any tight end into TE1 territory. Henry has been with the Patriots through the entire Mac Jones era, and the two have consistently flashed their chemistry through training camp. Considering Henry has been Jones' favorite RZ target over the past two seasons, he has a TD upside in half-PPR scoring formats. The Patriots tight end should maintain a full-time role after running a route on 70% of dropbacks over the last two seasons (11th).
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24.
Irv Smith Jr.
KC (vs . DET)
Three years into Irv Smith Jr.'s career, we have no real idea of how good he can be. The former second-round draft pick has lost 13 games to injury over the last two years. But Smith just turned 25 and is in a great situation as the starting tight end in an offense triggered by QB Joe Burrow. It might be best to wait at least a week before plugging Smith into your lineup, however, as he opens the season against a Browns defense that allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to tight ends in 2022.
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25.
Noah Fant
SEA (vs . LAR)
The Seattle Seahawks are operating with a dreaded tight end by committee with Fant, Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson all mixed in the fold with the team's starting offense during the preseason games. Fant has the most upside of the bunch based on his receiving and athletic profile, but you're just praying for a TD or massive run after the catch score. Two games versus the Rams last season, Fant averaged four receptions for 31 yards. He won't score zero points but won't be useful unless he scores. All Fant's four touchdowns last season came on targets inside the 10-yard line. Avoid the Seattle tight end room.
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26.
Mike Gesicki
CIN (at CLE)
If he didn't miss so much time in camp, I'd feel much better about Gesicki. But given questionable health and currently unknown role on offense. The ex-Dolphins tight end is just a wait and see proposition, that should remain on waiver wires until further notice.
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27.
Trey McBride
ARI (at WAS)
Should Zach Ertz not be available, that would tee up McBride to be the Cardinals' clear-cut TE1 for Week 1. McBride was the TE11 from Weeks 14-18 as his role expanded due to injuries on the Cardinals roster. His major highlight came against the Falcons in Week 17, where he caught 7 balls for 78 yards and 1 TD on ten targets with Marquise Brown active in the lineup. That earned him a top-3 weekly fantasy finish, making him one of just 23 unique tight ends to do so. His decorated college profile - 1,125 receiving yards and 30% target rate per route run in 2021 - suggests he can post points with a starting role. It's not crazy to think he could be the No. 2 pass-catcher on this offense in 2023. But let's see how things shake out first in Week 1 with a total unknown at quarterback.
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28.
Tyler Conklin
NYJ (vs . BUF)
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29.
Cade Otton
TB (at MIN)
He showed signs of competence as a rookie, but Otton topped 40 receiving yards in only three of his 16 games. Pass.
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30.
Dawson Knox
BUF (at NYJ)
One of the less interesting offseason debates in the fantasy community was whether Dawson Knox would maintain fantasy relevance in 2023 after Buffalo's drafting of first-round TE Dalton Kincaid. Knox likely hit his fantasy peak in 2021, when he finished TE11 in PPR fantasy scoring, mostly on the strength of his nine touchdowns. Knox averaged 4.7 targets a game that season. Even though that's a modest number, it's hard to imagine Knox coming close to it with Kincaid around. Knox shouldn't be anywhere near your starting lineup this week.
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31.
Michael Mayer
LV (at DEN)
Like Dulcich, Mayer saw discouraging usage in the preseason by splitting snaps with veteran tight end Austin Hooper. It's problematic with three decent WRs atop the depth chart for Meyer to have a major role in Year 1, let alone in Week 1 of the 2023 season.
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32.
Logan Thomas
FA (BYE)
Logan Thomas has missed a lot of time this preseason period dealing with a nagging calf injury, but he is believed to be back to full health in preparation of Week 1. We know that he will have a featured role on the offense given Bieniemy's experience with tight ends in his days spent in Kansas City. If healthy, LT could surprise in a big way as soon as Week 1. Recall that he finished 4th at the position in 2020 and was 10th in points per game in 2021. And the matchup versus a Jonathan Gannon-led defense could prove very favorable. Gannon's defense was very strong in Philadelphia over the last two years, but linebacker depth was always a serious question mark. Kyzir White came over from the Eagles this offseason, but the team traded Isaiah Simmons for a seventh-round pick. White is not a difference maker in coverage which lends itself to Thomas finding production in Week 1. Gannon's Eagles in 2021 were the second-worst team versus tight ends in fantasy points allowed.
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33.
Austin Hooper
NE (vs . PHI)
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34.
Noah Gray
KC (vs . DET)
Avoid Noah Gray. If Kelce sits, I wouldn't be picking up Gray with the idea of starting him. Even in limited action, Gray has not been an impressive player, with a career 0.78 yards per route run and 10.2% TPRR. If you need a streaming tight end, look for Juwan Johnson, Gerald Everett, or Logan Thomas (if you're exceptionally desperate) on the waiver wire. Each player is below 45% rostered in Yahoo leagues and has a strong to exceptional matchup for Week 1.
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35.
Adam Trautman
DEN (vs . LV)
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36.
Kylen Granson
IND (vs . JAC)
With Jelani Woods on IR, none of the Colts' tight ends are worthwhile fantasy options. Leave Granson on the waiver wire.
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37.
Durham Smythe
MIA (at LAC)
Durham Smythe has seen inspiring route participation during the preseason contests with the first-team offense. It's clear that he is viewed as the TE1 on the Dolphins, but that role in itself may not be worth much given how concentrated targets are between the top two WRs. No need to dabble in Smythe unless you're manning some insane 16/18-team tight end premium league. But his usage is worth monitoring should it carry over into the regular season.
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38.
Zach Ertz
WAS (vs . ARI)
Remains to be seen whether Ertz will be available in Week 1 coming off a major knee injury suffered during the half-point of the 2022 season. He's not on the PUP, but Ertz has remained non-committal on his Week 1 status. Regardless, he will be 33 in November. That combined with his return from a knee injury is a recipe for disaster.
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39.
Cole Turner
WAS (vs . ARI)
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40.
Will Dissly
LAC (vs . MIA)
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41.
Mo Alie-Cox
IND (vs . JAC)
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42.
Daniel Bellinger
NYG (vs . DAL)
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43.
Jonnu Smith
MIA (at LAC)
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44.
Donald Parham Jr.
LAC (vs . MIA)
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45.
Foster Moreau
NO (vs . TEN)
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46.
C.J. Uzomah
PHI (at NE)
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47.
Luke Schoonmaker
DAL (at NYG)
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48.
Brock Wright
DET (at KC)
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49.
Darnell Washington
PIT (vs . SF)
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50.
Robert Tonyan
MIN (vs . TB)
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51.
Charlie Kolar
BAL (vs . HOU)
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52.
Harrison Bryant
LV (at DEN)
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53.
Colby Parkinson
LAR (at SEA)
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54.
Josh Oliver
MIN (vs . TB)
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55.
Jimmy Graham
FA (BYE)
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56.
Blake Bell
FA (BYE)
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57.
Tucker Kraft
GB (at CHI)
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58.
Peyton Hendershot
DAL (at NYG)
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59.
Jordan Akins
CLE (vs . CIN)
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60.
Brevin Jordan
HOU (at BAL)
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61.
Tyler Kroft
FA (BYE)
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62.
Tommy Tremble
CAR (at ATL)
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63.
Ko Kieft
TB (at MIN)
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64.
Teagan Quitoriano
HOU (at BAL)
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65.
Brycen Hopkins
FA (BYE)
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66.
Brenton Strange
JAC (at IND)
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67.
Ian Thomas
CAR (at ATL)
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68.
Josh Whyle
TEN (at NO)
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69.
James Mitchell
DET (at KC)
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70.
Drew Ogletree
IND (vs . JAC)
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71.
Josiah Deguara
JAC (at IND)
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72.
Drew Sample
CIN (at CLE)
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73.
Trevon Wesco
FA (BYE)
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74.
Jeremy Ruckert
NYJ (vs . BUF)
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75.
Tre' McKitty
BUF (at NYJ)
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76.
Connor Heyward
PIT (vs . SF)
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77.
Luke Farrell
JAC (at IND)
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78.
Ross Dwelley
ATL (vs . CAR)
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79.
Chris Manhertz
NYG (vs . DAL)
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80.
John Bates
WAS (vs . ARI)
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81.
Johnny Mundt
MIN (vs . TB)
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82.
Grant Calcaterra
PHI (at NE)
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83.
MyCole Pruitt
PIT (vs . SF)
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84.
Quintin Morris
BUF (at NYJ)
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85.
Geoff Swaim
FA (BYE)
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86.
Jack Stoll
NYG (vs . DAL)
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87.
Marcedes Lewis
FA (BYE)
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88.
Mitchell Wilcox
NE (vs . PHI)
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89.
Jesper Horsted
LV (at DEN)
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90.
Charlie Woerner
ATL (vs . CAR)
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91.
Giovanni Ricci
CLE (vs . CIN)
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92.
Matt Bushman
KC (vs . DET)
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93.
David Wells
TB (at MIN)
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94.
Davis Allen
LAR (at SEA)
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95.
Parker Hesse
DET (at KC)
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96.
Stone Smartt
LAC (vs . MIA)
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97.
Pharaoh Brown
SEA (vs . LAR)
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98.
Ben Sims
GB (at CHI)
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99.
Tanner Hudson
CIN (at CLE)
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100.
Andrew Beck
HOU (at BAL)
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101.
Jody Fortson Jr.
MIA (at LAC)
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102.
Eric Saubert
SF (at PIT)
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103.
Cameron Brate
FA (BYE)
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104.
Zach Gentry
LV (at DEN)
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105.
Jared Cook
FA (BYE)
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106.
Trey Burton
FA (BYE)
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107.
Jordan Franks
FA (BYE)
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108.
Shane Zylstra
DET (at KC)
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109.
Kevin Rader
TEN (at NO)
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110.
Austin Allen
FA (BYE)
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111.
Tyree Jackson
NYG (vs . DAL)
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112.
Darrell Daniels
FA (BYE)
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113.
Bruce Miller
FA (BYE)
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114.
Gerrit Prince
KC (vs . DET)
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115.
Nick Bowers
MIA (at LAC)
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116.
Tanner Taula
TB (at MIN)
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117.
Lucas Krull
DEN (vs . LV)
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118.
Travis Vokolek
ARI (at WAS)
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119.
Johnny Lumpkin
DEN (vs . LV)
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120.
Maxx Williams
FA (BYE)
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121.
Troy Fumagalli
MIN (vs . TB)
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122.
Ryan Jones
NYG (vs . DAL)
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123.
Blake Whiteheart
ARI (at WAS)
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124.
John Samuel Shenker
LV (at DEN)
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125.
Brady Russell
SEA (vs . LAR)
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126.
Tommy Hudson
NO (vs . TEN)
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127.
Josh Pederson
JAC (at IND)
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128.
Sean McKeon
DET (at KC)
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129.
Zack Kuntz
NYJ (vs . BUF)
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130.
Joel Wilson
GB (at CHI)
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131.
Tucker Fisk
ATL (vs . CAR)
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132.
Cole Fotheringham
LV (at DEN)
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133.
Nikola Kalinic
LAR (at SEA)
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134.
Tyler Mabry
SEA (vs . LAR)
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135.
Dalton Keene
HOU (at BAL)
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